Nvidia Stock: Perfectly Priced Despite Positive Outlook (Rating Downgrade) (NASDAQ:NVDA)

Justin Sullivan

On this evaluation, we current a complete analysis of Nvidia Company (NASDAQ:NVDA), which builds upon our earlier protection of the corporate. Notably, we noticed that its inventory value has elevated by greater than 100% since our final

Nvidia Income ($ mln)

Precise (FY2023)

Our Forecast (FY2023)

Gaming

9,067

11,324

Progress %

-27.2%

-9.10%

Skilled Visualization

1,544

2,236

Progress %

-26.9%

5.90%

Knowledge Middle

15,005

12,708

Progress %

41.4%

19.7%

Automotive

903

691

Progress %

59.5%

22.00%

OEM and Different

455

1,162

Progress %

-60.8%

0.00%

Whole

26,974

28,120

Progress %

0.2%

4.50%

Knowledge Middle Section

Our Forecast

Precise

Cloud Infrastructure Market Revenues ($ bln)

248.1

227

Cloud Infrastructure Market Income Progress %

39%

28%

Knowledge Quantity (ZB)

97

110.2

Knowledge Quantity Progress %

23%

31%

Cloud Infrastructure Income Progress/Knowledge Quantity Progress

1.73

0.90

Whole Market Capex (Adjusted)

209

178.5

Whole Market Capex Progress %

28%

9%

Market Capex/ Market Revenues

0.84

0.79

Market Capex/ Market Revenues Progress %

-8%

-15%

Nvidia Knowledge Middle Share of Capex Spend

6.5%

8.4%

Enhance

0%

1.9%

Nvidia Knowledge Middle Revenues

13.6

15.0

Nvidia Knowledge Middle Revenues Progress %

27.7%

41.4%

Knowledge Middle Product Launch (Calendar 12 months)

Rely

2021

17

2022

13

Knowledge Middle Partnerships (Calendar 12 months)

Rely

2021

4

2022

4

Cloud Suppliers Capex

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Nvidia Knowledge Middle Revenues

2.9

3.0

6.7

10.6

15.0

Nvidia Knowledge Middle Share of Capex Spend

3.5%

3.4%

5.3%

6.5%

8.4%

AMD Knowledge Middle Revenues

1.08

1.23

1.69

3.69

6.04

Share of Knowledge Capex Spend

1.3%

1.4%

1.3%

2.3%

3.4%

Intel Knowledge Middle Revenues

22.99

23.48

23.41

22.69

19.20

Share of Knowledge Capex Spend

27.8%

26.7%

18.6%

13.8%

10.8%

Broadcom Knowledge Middle Revenues (Estimate)

7.19

6.60

6.56

7.75

9.81

Share of Knowledge Capex Spend

8.7%

7.5%

5.2%

4.7%

5.5%

Marvell Knowledge Middle Revenues

0.81

0.85

1.04

1.78

2.41

Share of Knowledge Capex Spend

1.0%

1.0%

0.8%

1.1%

1.3%

Knowledge Middle Portfolio

Nvidia

AMD

Intel

Broadcom

Marvell

CPU

Launching FY2024

Sure

Sure

No

No

GPU

Sure

Sure

Sure

No

No

DPU

Sure

Sure

Sure (‘IPU’)

Sure

Sure

Networking Interconnects

Sure

No

Sure

Sure

Sure

Software program

Sure

Sure

Sure

Sure

Sure

Built-in {Hardware} and Software program

Sure (DGX Cloud)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Cloud Suppliers Capex ($ mln)

2022

2023F

2024F

2025F

2026F

Whole Market Capex (Adjusted)

178.5

210

256

313

381

Whole Market Capex Progress %

9%

18%

22%

22%

22%

Cloud Infrastructure Providers Income

227

301

413

567

779

Cloud Infrastructure Providers Income Progress %

28%

32%

37%

37%

37%

Market Capex/ Market Revenues

0.8

0.70

0.62

0.55

0.49

Market Capex/ Market Revenues Progress %

-15%

-11%

-11%

-11%

-11%

Cloud Suppliers Capex

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023F

2024F

2025F

2026F

Whole Market Capex (Adjusted)

88

126

164

179

210

256

313

381

Whole Market Capex Progress %

6%

43%

30%

9%

18%

22%

22%

22%

Nvidia Knowledge Middle Share of Capex Spend

3.4%

5.3%

6.5%

8.4%

10.1%

11.7%

13.4%

15.1%

Enhance

-0.1%

1.9%

1.1%

1.9%

1.7%

1.7%

1.7%

1.7%

Nvidia Knowledge Middle Revenues

3.0

6.7

10.6

15.0

21.2

30.1

41.9

57.5

Nvidia Knowledge Middle Revenues Progress %

1.8%

124.5%

58.5%

41.4%

41.0%

42.2%

39.3%

37.2%

Nvidia Income

Precise (FY2023)

Our Forecast (FY2023)

Gaming

9,067

11,324

Progress %

-27.2%

-9.10%

gpu share

JPR, Khaveen Investments

Nvidia Gaming GPU Forecast

2021

2022

Whole PC Discrete GPU Market Shipments (‘mln’)

138.0

71.3

Progress %

-48.33%

Nvidia Market Share

81.3%

82.0%

Nvidia Shipments (‘mln’)

112.1

58.5

Progress %

-48%

Nvidia Common PC GPU Value ($)

111.14

155.07

Progress %

40%

Nvidia PC GPU Income ($ mln)

12,462

9,067

Progress %

-27.2%

gpu performance

PassMark, Firm Knowledge, Khaveen Investments

gpu price

PassMark, Firm Knowledge, Khaveen Investments

gpu value

PassMark, Firm Knowledge, Khaveen Investments

AMD Desktop GPU Efficiency

2020 Gen

2022 Gen

Common

AMD Progress %

52.4%

52.8%

52.6%

Nvidia Desktop GPU Efficiency

2020 Gen

2022 Gen

Nvidia Progress %

27.0%

53.9%

40.5%

AMD Desktop GPU Value

2020 Gen

2022 Gen

Common

AMD Progress %

90.5%

79.5%

85.0%

Nvidia Desktop GPU Value

2020 Gen

2022 Gen

Nvidia Progress %

4.5%

42.5%

23.5%

AMD Desktop Efficiency Per Value

2020 Gen

2022 Gen

Common

AMD Progress %

-20.0%

-14.9%

-17.4%

Nvidia Desktop Efficiency Per Value

2020 Gen

2022 Gen

Nvidia Progress %

21.5%

8.0%

14.8%

Nvidia Gaming GPU Forecast

2021

2022

2023F

2024F

2025F

2026F

Whole PC Discrete GPU Market Shipments (‘mln’)

138.0

71.3

63.0

65.4

67.8

70.4

Progress %

-48.33%

-11.70%

3.80%

3.80%

3.80%

Nvidia Market Share

81.3%

82.0%

83.9%

84.6%

85.3%

86.0%

Nvidia Shipments (‘mln’)

112.1

58.5

52.85

55.29

57.85

60.53

Progress %

-48%

-9.6%

4.6%

4.6%

4.6%

Nvidia Common PC GPU Value

111.14

155.07

191.5

226.9

257.6

285.1

Progress %

40%

23%

18%

13%

11%

Nvidia PC GPU Income ($ mln)

12,462

9,067

10,121

12,548

14,901

17,258

Progress %

-27.2%

11.6%

24.0%

18.7%

15.8%

Nvidia Profitability

Precise (FY2023)

Our Forecast (FY2023)

Gross Margins

56.93%

64.91%

Working Margins

20.68%

41.80%

Web Margins

16.19%

41.85%

FCF Margins

48.26%

44.99%

Capex ($ bln)

0.976

1.23

nvidia expense analysis

Nvidia, Khaveen Investments

Nvidia Profitability (% of Income)

Precise (FY2023)

Our Forecast (FY2023)

Depreciation & Amortization

5.72%

8.03%

Analysis and improvement

27.21%

15.06%

Promoting, basic and administrative

9.05%

8.05%

Different Bills (Earnings)

0.00%

0.00%

Curiosity

0.02%

-0.59%

R&D Expense

Enhance

Inventory-Primarily based Compensation (Compensation)

46%

Headcount (Worker Progress)

16.5%

Patent Publications (Engineering improvement prices)

63%

PPE Capex (Knowledge heart infrastructure)

100%

Nvidia R&D % of Income Forecasts ($ mln)

2021

2022

2023F

2024F

2025F

2026F

2027F

Income

26,914

26,974

34,708

46,958

62,209

78,373

94,663

Income Progress

61.4%

0.2%

28.7%

35.3%

32.5%

26.0%

20.8%

R&D % of income

19.6%

27.2%

24.9%

22.4%

20.3%

18.7%

17.6%

R&D % of income Progress

-16.8%

39.0%

-8.35%

-10.28%

-9.46%

-7.57%

-6.06%

R&D % income Progress/Income Progress Issue

-0.27

174.95

-0.29

-0.29

-0.29

-0.29

-0.29

nvidia earnings

Nvidia, Khaveen Investments

Nvidia Profitability

Precise (FY2023)

Our Forecast (FY2023)

FCF Margins

48.26%

44.99%

Capex ($ bln)

1.8

1.23

Capex as % of Income

6.8%

4.4%

Capex as % of Fastened Property

10.1%

8%

Investing Money Move ($ bln)

-7.375

1.23

nvidia cash flows

Nvidia, Khaveen Investments

Nvidia Income Forecasts ($ mln)

2020

2021

2022

2023F

2024F

2025F

Gaming

7,759

12,462

9,067

10,121

12,548

14,901

Progress %

40.6%

60.6%

-27.2%

11.6%

24.0%

18.7%

Skilled Visualization

1,053

2,111

1,544

1,724

2,137

2,537

Progress %

-13.1%

100.5%

-26.9%

11.6%

24.0%

18.7%

Knowledge Middle

6,696

10,613

15,005

21,161

30,096

41,938

Progress %

124.5%

58.5%

41.4%

41.0%

42.2%

39.3%

Automotive

536

566

903

1,247

1,722

2,378

Progress %

-23.4%

5.6%

59.5%

38.1%

38.1%

38.1%

OEM and Different

631

1,162

455

455

455

455

Progress %

25.0%

84.2%

-60.8%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Whole

16,675

26,914

26,974

34,708

46,958

62,209

Progress %

53%

61.4%

0.2%

28.7%

35.3%

32.5%

us chipmaker ev/ebitda

In search of Alpha, Khaveen Investments

nvidia valuation

Khaveen Investments

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